Beating the Lib Dems III

I got sent a link to this discussion, about the May elections in Islington. Someone who seems quite well informed says in the comments that the following is something that Lib Dems ought to be aware of, and if it's good enough for them...

"It's something for all Lib Dems perhaps to be aware of, (I've seen it probably twice before), that canvas returns which can be very accurate when the party is making ground, can be very unreliable if the party is losing ground; particularly of course if the Shuttleworth contains a lot of older data. Ironically, things were probably exacerbated in Islington by special factors: first, a move to concentrate canvassing on voters with a consistent record of going out to vote -- thus missing altogether previous stay-at-home voters who decided to return to the fold after all this year; but also ironically the sheer efficiency and discipline of the Islington Lib Dem teams, who achieved a very thorough canvas very early, perhaps before the impact of the other parties' election campaigns really took hold; and who, when told by the centre to concentrate on the 'development wards' then duly did so enthusiastically and unquestioningly, even though in the event that made them into lambs marching to the slaughter."

The rest of the comments are also quite interesting, particularly confirmation about urban Lib Dems getting increasingly concerned about the Green Party.