Trident

I could be completely wrong about this, but I get the sense that the debate about whether or not to renew Trident isn't one which most people feel all that strongly about.

The issue that really seems to get people going is our support for American foreign policy (which is something which lots of people do feel very strongly about, both for and against), and that the case for and against renewing Trident is mostly conducted as a part of that wider debate (that's the feedback, for instance, I got about last weekend's demo). This is different from the 1980's, with fewer people who hadn't been involved in other campaigns getting involved in the anti-Trident campaign, and fewer people thinking that getting rid of our nukes will lead to surrender to a Communist dictatorship.

One interesting implication of this is that I think most swing voters now (unlike in the 80s) would like us to show a bit more independence from the Americans, and if they are not that interested in the detailed arguments for and against Trident renewal, not renewing might be quite a good way for us to show we are on their side.

Personally, I think renewing Trident would be a bad idea, and the argument that we should do so because we don't know what threats there will be in the future on a par with arguing that billions should be spent to defend against giant lizards invading from outer space (it may sound unlikely, but can its opponents say that it is impossible?) But I don't feel nearly as strongly about it as I did about, say, Iraq.