Thursday, March 06, 2008

How political analysis works

Dick Morris is a political strategist who advised President Bill Clinton and a variety of Republican candidates. He currently gets paid lots of money to explain to people about who will win elections, and why. Luckily for him, his pay isn't linked to how accurate his predictions are...

"Hillary Clinton has blown an almost sure shot at the Democratic presidential nomination. Having surrendered the lead to Obama, she is not likely ever to regain it. It is a fantasy that the Ohio and Texas primaries will be a “firewall” to contain the flames of enthusiasm for Obama and reverse her defeats of February. Just as with Giuliani’s supposed Florida firewall, Hillary’s will crumble as Obama’s momentum carries him forward to the nomination." - Dick Morris, 'Why Hillary will lose', February 13th

"Voters are likely to hand state after state over to Obama. It's increasingly unlikely that Clinton will win even one of them." - Dick Morris, 'Hillary on the Rocks', February 22nd

"She can’t accept the sorry fact that her campaign has been a disaster because it was based on the past and not the future, because it was premised on her phony experience and maintaining the status quo, and because her negative outlook is completely out of step with the mood of America." - Dick Morris, 'Hillary Unmasked', March 1st

"For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's been ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up -- this one is for you" - Hillary Clinton, March 4th

"With big wins in Ohio and Texas last night, Hillary Clinton has finally broken her losing streak and sent a clear message to Barack Obama: I'm not getting out...The battle of Hillary is over. The battle of Obama has begun. The question of his readiness and experience looms ever larger in the minds of the media and of voters." - Dick Morris, 'Obama Better Battle Back Before It's Too Late', March 6th

Nice. Analysis.

5 Comments:

At 9:41 am , Anonymous jdc said...

Of course it looks entirely possible that Obama is going to come out of the final count in Texas with more delegates, so Hillary has only won it in the same way that Al Gore won the 2000 General Election. Wouldn't know that from the papers, though...

 
At 2:31 pm , Blogger donpaskini said...

A fair point, but lots of Democrats think that Gore did actually win the 2000 election. So if Hillary ends up ahead on the popular vote but behind on the pledged delegates, it all helps with trying to persuade the superdelegates to support her.

 
At 3:54 pm , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aaah but this election won't be decided by pledged delegates so if Hilary can claim a popular vote lead (possible) then it might be enough.

Personally I am more worried that the Democrats are either going to nominate a candidate with massive proven problems with self-dentified independents (a strong McCain demographic) or massive proven problems with older white voters in swing states (a strong McCain demographic) and Latinos (a strong McCain demographic)

 
At 4:34 pm , Anonymous jdc said...

(Or indeed a candidate whose campaign uses deniable racist tactic after deniable racist tactic. There must come a point where this damages the likelihood of the black vote to turn out.)

But yeah, McCain is the value bet, in my view.

 
At 4:25 pm , Blogger ejh said...

A punter writes: it's not a "value bet" unless you've discussed what the odds are.

For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's been ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up -- this one is for you"

When she came out with this - do you reckon she was drunk?

 

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