Sunday, September 14, 2008

Labour surge in opinion polls

The last month and a half has seen the Labour Party, going for an unprecedented fourth election victory in a row, recover dramatically. Back in July, it was trailing by more than 20%, but opinion polls last week show the gap down to just 6% and closing... New Zealand.

Although economic problems caused by the credit crunch have affected governments all around the world, the last couple of months has seen governing parties facing election later this year do rather well. In New Zealand, Labour was trailing 31%-52% in July, now it is 38%-44%. In Canada, the Conservative government was ahead by 33%-30% in June, they now lead 38%-24%. And the Republican Party trailed 35%-53% at the end of July, now trail 41%-46% (and their Presidential candidate is doing better still).

It's not just the economy, therefore, that explains why Labour in Britain is trailing behind the Tories. Labour in New Zealand have been in office for a long time, and the Republican Party has been far more incompetent and disastrous in power. But neither spent their time turning on each other or feeling sorry for themselves. Lessons from other countries show that even in a couple of months, it is possible to turn things round quite dramatically. Who knows, some of our MPs might even find that helping Labour recover in the polls is almost as much fun as talking to each other and to journalists about whether we should get rid of our leader.


At 1:23 am , Anonymous Anonymous said...

A bigger problem than the economy for Labour is the endless feud between the Blairites and Brownites, with both sides unable to resist continuing the war just as the dust seems to have settled.I have no doubt Brown will lose in 2010, but he could simply lose Labour's majority rather than hand the Tories a convincing triple figure majority.The public won't accept a new leader without a general election in any case so a leadership contest is a waste of time without a vacancy.

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