The Wisdom of the Crowds revisited

John Rentoul writes in the Independent that it is all over for Gordon Brown at the next election. He cites analysis earlier this month by Andy Cooke on the Political Betting website that at every election since 1979 there has been a swing to the Tories as the election approached. (Just to be clear, I'm not saying the two articles are the same - Cooke's is a good piece of analysis).

Regular readers, of course, didn't need to find this out from the Independent or from Political Betting, because they read all about it here, back in October 2006. And fourteen months from now, Rentoul and the commentators on Political Betting will be explaining how it was that 2008 proved to be the year when people took a look at what the Tories would do if elected - and Labour regained the lead in the opinion polls. Remember, you read it here first.