Monday, June 04, 2007

tactical voting in deputy leadership election

There is a chance I have got this horribly wrong, but I think this is a guide to how to vote tactically in the deputy leadership election to give your preferred candidate the best chance:

pregthwr has done some amazing number crunching, and provided a guesstimate of the deputy leadership, based on the recent polls:

Alan Johnson 26.0%
Hilary Benn 20.6%
Harriet Harman 18.0%
Jon Cruddas 15.0%
Peter Hain 13.7%
Hazel Blears 11.4%

Using the 'certain to vote' measure from the polls gives a slightly different result:

Johnson 25.8%
Benn 21.1%
Cruddas 19.5%
Harman 14.1%
Blears 13.6%
Hain 11.7%

So Blears and Hain are out of it, barring a huge swing. Alan Johnson will be benefiting from more transfers from Hazel Blears' supporters than any other candidate in all three colleges, so he'll be in the final two.

After Blears and Hain get eliminated, one out of Cruddas and Harman will get eliminated, depending on who ends up third and fourth on the first ballot and then is more successful with transfers from Blears and Hain (they are about neck and neck on this). It is to their mutual advantage to have a reciprocal deal where their supporters put the other second (so Harman supporters vote Cruddas 2 and Cruddas supporters vote Harman 2), as this is probably the only way of passing Hilary Benn on transfers and getting into the final two, and it does them no harm whatsoever.

By the same token, it is mutually advantageous for Benn, Harman and Cruddas' supporters to put each of them higher then they put Johnson, because they will need huge transfers from the eliminated candidates to overtake Johnson in the final round.

So...

If you want Jon Cruddas to win, vote Cruddas 1, then arrange with a Harman supporter that you will put Harman 2nd if they put Cruddas 2nd. Then arrange with a Benn supporter that you will preference Benn ahead of Johnson if they put Cruddas ahead of Johnson.

If you want Harman to win, same drill except swap round the names above.

If you want Benn to win, vote Benn 1 and then arrange with a Cruddas and Harman supporter to preference them above Johnson in exchange for them doing likewise.

If you want Johnson to win, vote for him and then preference the other candidates in any order you like (though do fill in all the boxes from 1-6).

If you want Blears or Hain to win, bad luck.

I don't think there will be much tactical voting of this kind, so I think AJ is going to win, beating Hilary Benn in the final round. What a stupid voting system.

6 Comments:

At 8:24 am , Anonymous Old hack said...

Can you advise me on tactical voting to make sure Harriet doesn't win?

 
At 10:18 am , Blogger donpaskini said...

Vote Cruddas 1 Benn 2 Johnson 3, then Blears and Hain, and Harman 6. Why do you want to stop Harriet from winning?

 
At 8:22 am , Anonymous old hack said...

Because her only campain pledge seems to be that she's different from Gordon, whereas actually she's the closest to Gordon of all the candidates. And when you've just chosen a leader who is infamous for making decisions with only a very tight circle of colleagues, and you have an opportunity to put someone in a position of power who will tell him when he's wrong and stand up to him, then it's bonkers to just elect one of his yes-men (or yes-women).

 
At 11:06 am , Anonymous Pickles said...

The best way to make sure that the right one wins is to vote Benn 1

 
At 2:09 am , Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the last two are Johnson and Benn, then based on these numbers, Benn's going to win.

 
At 2:16 am , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course, the figures might not be right - the totals seem to add up to around 105%

 

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